I just heard Duncan Stewart speak about the Deloitte 2013 TMT predictions at an event held by the London Economic Development Corporation. A couple of things have been mentioned on Slaw before. Here are some more things to ponder.
As we start to rely on more data in the cloud, carrier promises for uptime guarantees will be as important as the volume of data on our plans.
The hype over voice and gesture control for PCs and TVs is overblown. A remote control has an error rate of about 2 per 10,000 uses. Voice and gesture error rates are currently about 1,000 times higher. So until that improves dramatically, people will tend to just give up and use a remote.
There is a looming wireless spectrum shortage. As we get more portable devices downloading and streaming more images and video, speeds will slow dramatically. In some places in the US it is a problem already, and actual speeds are nowhere near theoretical speeds. And when demand is greater than supply, price becomes an issue.
The post PC era notion is overblown. The total install base of PCs is far more than phones and tablets. Creation is easier on a PC. And its about the screen size, especially for gaming and video. 2/3 of net traffic is from PCs. There are also privacy and cultural reasons not to use sensitive stuff in public – like doing your banking on your phone with someone beside you – or looking up medical symptoms.
Phablets not doomed because of their size. Many people don’t use their phones for voice that much. Phablet sales will be bigger than many think.
What’s ahead for inclusion in their 2014 predictions? MOOCs.