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If the Mouse Roared, Then the Court Whimpered

…re. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy has an explanation which does not require a mathematical background. Bayes’ Theorem is a simple mathematical formula used for calculating conditional probabilities. It figures prominently in subjectivist or Bayesian approaches to epistemology, statistics, and inductive logic. Subjectivists, who maintain that rational belief is governed by the laws of probability, lean heavily on conditional probab… . . . [more]

Posted in: Case Comment, Justice Issues, Substantive Law

Probability, Nike Trainers, and Murder: English Court Case Bars Bayes and Raises Ruckus

…l’s conclusion in the instant case was wrong. However, the Court went further and anathematized the use of Bayes’ Theorem, the mathematical tool commonly used by scientists to calculate “likelihood ratios”. Paragraph 90 contains this fatal phrase: It is quite clear therefore that outside the field of DNA (and possibly other areas where there is a firm statistical base), this court has made it clear that Bayes theorem and l… . . . [more]

Posted in: Practice of Law

An Excursis Into Bayes’ Theorem… More or Less

[I]f a rare event (10/1000) is reported by a very reliable witness (80/100), the chances that the rare event happened is closer to its base rate (10/1000) than the accuracy of the reliable witness (80/100) Psychology of Compliance & Due Diligence Law: “What does a 18th Century Philosopher have to Offer the 21st?“ I didn’t do well with statistics in university. Didn’t do it at all, really. Which is my loss, because no… . . . [more]

Posted in: Miscellaneous