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If the Mouse Roared, Then the Court Whimpered

...7; experts’ theory of factual causation. That theory was based on a method of analyzing data known as the Bayes Theorem, which is used to produce conditional statistical probabilities. The majority of the Court of Appeal affirmed the decision on the basis that there was nothing about the trial decision that allowed the court to reverse or vary the trial decision. [142] The standard of review in this case is to defer to the evidentiary findi...
Posted in: Case Comment, Justice Issues, Substantive Law

Probability, Nike Trainers, and Murder: English Court Case Bars Bayes and Raises Ruckus

...’s conclusion in the instant case was wrong. However, the Court went further and anathematized the use of Bayes’ Theorem, the mathematical tool commonly used by scientists to calculate “likelihood ratios”. Paragraph 90 contains this fatal phrase: It is quite clear therefore that outside the field of DNA (and possibly other areas where there is a firm statistical base), this court has made it clear that Bayes theorem and li...
Posted in: Practice of Law

An Excursis Into Bayes’ Theorem… More or Less

...quoted above. The column was sparked by another in the Science and Law Blog, “Helping Legal Actors with Bayes’ Theorem,” that posed the exact same problem in two different ways, the probabalistic (first) and the frequentist (second): A disease occurs in 1% of the population, and a test has been developed which has an 80% accuracy rate (i.e., if you have the disease, there is a 80% chance the test will pick it up), and a 9.6% false...
Posted in: Miscellaneous