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Quantifying the Value of Legal Information

...I am assuming the following probabilities: Looking at the firm’s existing data, they can say that the probability of a win after they predict a win is 90%. The probability that the firm will predict a win is 57% Using Bayes theorem (which you can read more about here if you care to) this leads us to a new set of probable outcomes, and the new expected value of the matter is $457,143. This means that the value of the better predictions in...
Posted in: Legal Information

Cross Examining the Artificial Intelligence

...wyers’ tasks, like advising clients, writing legal briefs, negotiating and appearing in court, seem beyond the reach of computerization, for a while. But natural language processing, typically employing techniques like Naive Bayes text classification, is still a very rudimentary form of machine learning. They do not employ the same creative faculties that legal practitioners often use to create new law or develop a test case. Predictive...
Posted in: Education & Training, Technology

If the Mouse Roared, Then the Court Whimpered

...ility of ‘Inference Causation’: Inferring Cause-In-Fact And The Nature Of Legal Fact-Finding” (2010) 55 McGill L. J. 1 at 27ff [Brown, “Inference Causation”]. Brown provides, at 27-28, a useful general explanation of how the Bayesian analysis is performed. In essence, Bayes’s Theory furnishes a mechanism for incrementally revising probability estimates in light of new information, thereby allowing a fact-finder to update continually an...
Posted in: Case Comment, Justice Issues, Substantive Law

Probability, Nike Trainers, and Murder: English Court Case Bars Bayes and Raises Ruckus

...table with mathematics. Yet, anyone who deals in proof, and particularly proof in criminal cases, should become adept at using Bayes. In which case, I recommend Eliezer S. Yudkowsky’s “An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem — Bayes’ Theorem for the curious and bewildered; an excruciatingly gentle introduction.” He uses as an example the sort of statistics we all confront in the daily papers, data...
Posted in: Practice of Law

An Excursis Into Bayes’ Theorem… More or Less

...ok at Risk, “A False Sense of Insecurity” [pdf] by John Mueller. So I was intrigued by the recent post quoted above. The column was sparked by another in the Science and Law Blog, “Helping Legal Actors with Bayes’ Theorem,” that posed the exact same problem in two different ways, the probabalistic (first) and the frequentist (second): A disease occurs in 1% of the population, and a test has been developed which has an 80%...
Posted in: Miscellaneous